This awards season has had its fair share of twists and turns, but the Oscars are finally upon us. Some categories have been locked in for weeks, and some are still real nail-biters. But now, after weeks of research and debate, we have our list.
Skip to the bottom for a condensed prediction list, or go to the Our Pix page.
If you win your Oscar pool, we’ll happily take the credit. If you lose, please send all complaints to martinscorsese42@gmail.com
BEST PICTURE: 1917
This has become a tight 3-film race. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood took a lead early on, and Parasite has seen a big push in recent weeks. And if there’s an international film that could win best picture, Parasite would be it. But at the end of the day, history and precedence are on the side of 1917. It’s a powerful, popular, visually compelling war film with an easy to digest anti-war message. It won the PGA, which has predicted 8 out of the last 10 best picture winners. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has lost a lot of steam, and an international film has never won best picture. We certainly wouldn’t be mad if Parasite surprised us here, but the safe bet is 1917.
Will win: 1917
Could win: Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
BEST DIRECTOR: Sam Mendes, 1917
This is another close call between 1917 and Parasite. Bong Joon Ho certainly crafted a near-perfect film in Parasite. But history has shown that the more technically compelling film tends to win here (The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, Life of Pi), so our bet is with Sam Mendes. He won the DGA award and his coordination of 1917’s technically challenging long takes are likely to impress voters.
Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Could win: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Should win: Sam Mendes, 1917
BEST ACTRESS: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Our acting picks have been locked in for some time now. Since winning the Golden Globe, Renée Zellweger has picked up every relevant acting award. The Academy loves when actors step into the roles of historical figures, and Zellweger has a strong comeback narrative that will make her even more appealing to voters. It’s hard to see this going any other way.
Will win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Could win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Should win: Renée Zellweger, Judy
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Another pick that has been locked in for a while. The Academy tends to vote for the biggest performances, and what performance this year was bigger than Joaquin Phoenix in Joker? He fully stepped into the role, he’s won all of the relevant awards, and he has now been nominated four times for an Oscar. The Academy knows this Oscar is overdue, and we feel very confident that he’ll be celebrating on Oscar Sunday.
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Could win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Should win (Ben): Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Should win (Matt): Adam Driver, Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Marriage Story seemed to be made with the sole purpose of winning acting awards. But on Oscar Sunday, Laura Dern seems poised to take home Marriage Story’s only award. She’s won all of the relevant awards. It’s always been Dern. It will always be Dern.
Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Could win: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Brad Pitt’s performance in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was grounded and compelling. He plays an unappreciated actor, which speaks directly to the actors that make up the Academy’s biggest voting bloc. And he’s hot. He’s won all of the relevant awards and has all of the momentum. We’re excited to see where this young talent will go from here.
Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could win: Al Pacino, The Irishman
Should win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood built and then lost a lot of momentum over the last few weeks. Tarantino won the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice. But then Parasite won the BAFTA and the WGA (Tarantino isn’t in the guild so he wasn’t nominated). The Academy could vote to give Tarantino his third original screenplay Oscar. But we think they’ll go with Parasite, which is deeply original and has proven through awards season to be one of the most popular movies of the year. It’s going to be close, but Parasite has picked up the momentum and the edge.
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit
Little Women had the edge for a while with Greta Gerwig’s clever retelling of the story, but that changed when Jojo Rabbit won the WGA. The WGA loves to vote for movies about writers, so Little Women’s loss here really deflated its Oscar chances. Jojo Rabbit is quirky and wild, and is likely to be seen as more original than Little Women, which has been adapted to the screen a few times before. Little Women could still take it, but Jojo Rabbit has built up a passionate fan base that we think will take it over the edge.
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Could win: Little Women
Should win (Ben): Joker
Should win (Matt): Jojo Rabbit
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
Pixar is like Alabama or the Patriots. They always win. It would require a seismic shift for them to lose. Through this award season we’ve seen rumbles, with Missing Link winning the Golden Globe and Klaus picking up 7 Annie awards and the BAFTA. But in the end, we don’t think it’ll be enough to shake the giant off the hill. Toy Story 4 may not be on the same level as Toy Story 3, but it is still beautifully made and has the widest reach out of any film in the category. We just can’t vote against Pixar.
Will win: Toy Story 4
Could win: Klaus
Should win (Ben): I Lost My Body
Should win (Matt): Toy Story 4
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: American Factory
After Apollo 11 wasn’t nominated, American Factory became the universally agreed second choice. And that second choice has held the lead this entire awards season. It tells a heartbreaking and politically relevant story set in the Midwest, and it was produced by the Obamas. Second choice! Second choice!
Will win: American Factory
Could win: Honeyland
Should win: American Factory
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Parasite
Look, I don’t have to tell you it’s Parasite. You already know it’s Parasite. Any international film that ends up vying for best picture is guaranteed to win best international film. We almost didn’t even want to include a “could win” for this category because it’s so unlikely that any other film could win. Place those bets now, because it’s the easiest money you'll ever make.
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Pain and Glory
Should win: Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
This award was decided before the nominations were even released. Roger Deakins’ long, sweeping shots are guaranteed to get him the win. He’s won the ASC award and has been leading the pack this whole awards season. It’s all Deakins all the way.
Will win: 1917
Could win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: 1917
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Little Women
The Oscars always go for older, flashy period films in this category. The older and flashier the better. That’s why it’s no surprise that Little Women has been at the top of this category since the beginning. Its big, intricate dresses are total Oscar bait. Jojo Rabbit could surprise with its colorful, Wes Anderson-like take on World War II Germany, but our guts tell us that Little Women is the safe bet.
Will win: Little Women
Could win: Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Little Women
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Some of the best production design this year came from Parasite, which built an entire house from scratch for the film. But this race has tightened between two Academy favorites: war and Hollywood. The production design necessary to build the world for 1917’s long shots was impressive as hell. But we can’t overestimate how much the Academy loves voting for itself. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood faithfully recreated late 60’s Hollywood, and older voters especially will connect with that nostalgia. It also picked up momentum by winning the Art Directors’ Guild award. 1917 is impressive, but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is too relatable for voters to pass up.
Will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could win: 1917
Should win: 1917, Parasite
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Bombshell
This award often goes to films that transform their leads into famous or historical people (Vice, Darkest Hour, Dallas Buyers Club, The Iron Lady). Bombshell locked this up with Charlize Theron’s total transformation into Megyn Kelly. The real bombshell would be if any film other than Bombshell won this one.
Will win: Bombshell
Could win: Judy
Should win: Bombshell
BEST FILM EDITING: Parasite
This may be the closest race on the list. Ford v. Ferrari has been a longtime leader for its fast-paced action, but Parasite’s award momentum makes it poised to pass it on the track. Parasite won the ASC award, which has predicted best film editing 75% of the time. And its wins at the SAG awards show its widespread appeal, which we think will be just enough to take it over the finish line. Expect this movie to beat the other movie like a metaphor of a car beating another car in a race, like in Ford v. Ferrari. But it won’t be Ford v. Ferrari, it’ll be Parasite. Wow, that really got away from us.
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Ford v. Ferrari
Should win: Parasite
BEST SOUND EDITING: 1917
War movies tend to dominate this category (Dunkirk, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hurt Locker) so 1917 has long been an easy choice here. Its long takes that take its characters from quiet, intimate moments to loud, frantic war sequences created incredible challenges for the sound team. The main competitor here is Ford v. Ferrari, which picked up some relevant guild awards. But in the end, precedence is on the side of 1917.
Will win: 1917
Could win: Ford v. Ferrari
Should win: 1917
BEST SOUND MIXING: 1917
Most Academy voters don’t know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing. And one of these days we intend to find out what that difference is. But until then, the safe bet here is always to vote the same for both sound categories.
Will win: 1917
Could win: Ford v. Ferrari
Should win: 1917
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Joker
Joker has stayed in the lead since its Critics’ Choice win, and hasn’t lost any steam since. The powerful score stands out more than any other this year, and a win for Joker could be the first win for a female composer since 1997. It’s hard to see any other film taking this one.
Will win: Joker
Could win: 1917
Should win: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Elton John is an Academy powerhouse. Every year he famously hosts a big post-Oscar party. Voters love him, and he’s won all of the relevant awards so far. It’s a song from a musical about a musician that everyone loves. It’s going to win.
Will win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Could win: “Stand Up” from Harriet
Should win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 1917
This category has been a real toss up and could go several different ways. Some people expect Avengers: Endgame to win on a legacy nod as a way to reward all of the Avengers movies. And some expect it to go to The Irishman, which created new CGI software specifically for the de-aging in the film. But our bet here is with 1917. Older Academy voters don’t tend to respect Marvel movies, and superhero movies have only won twice in the entire history of this award, despite being nominated all the time. There’s just not enough evidence that the Academy will break their tradition of ignoring Marvel this year. And the VFX of The Irishman is likely too divisive to give it a win. Enough people find the de-aging flawed or clunky, and there’s been discussion over the long term cinematic consequences of de-aging CGI. Meanwhile, 1917 is impressive, seamless, and noncontroversial. Voters like VFX that is integrated into real sets or locations instead of blue screen sound stages. And as the most technically impressive film of the year, 1917 is an instant favorite for all technical awards. It’ll be close, but for us, the safe choice is 1917.
Will win: 1917
Could win: Avengers: Endgame
Should win: 1917
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
This is probably the safest bet across the shorts. It’s exactly the type of short that the Academy likes to vote for, with a lot of similarities to last year's winner Period. End of Sentence. It's important, uplifting, sad, and charming. It stands out in a major way, and it’ll win.
Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Could win: St. Louis Superman
Should win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Hair Love
This has been a two-horse race between Sony’s Hair Love and Pixar’s Kitbull. Hair Love has shown the most momentum, telling a more relatable human story from a diverse perspective. It feels more original and more important, and that should be enough to beat out the Pixar giants this year.
Will win: Hair Love
Could win: Kitbull
Should win: Hair Love
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Neighbors’ Window
This one is a close call between Brotherhood and The Neighbors’ Window. Our guts told us that The Neighbors’ Window would be the most relatable to voters. It has known American actors, an easily accessible message, and a perfectly balanced tone that’s funny without being a comedy, and sad without being too depressing. Brotherhood could still take it, but we’re going with precedence. More and more of the discussion has been shifting to The Neighbors’ Window, and we hope that means our guts were right.
Will win: The Neighbors’ Window
Could win: Brotherhood
Should win: The Neighbors’ Window
FULL LIST
BEST PICTURE: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR: Sam Mendes, 1917
BEST ACTRESS: Renée Zellweger, Judy
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: American Factory
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Little Women
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR: Bombshell
BEST FILM EDITING: Parasite
BEST SOUND EDITING: 1917
BEST SOUND MIXING: 1917
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 1917
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Hair Love
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Neighbors’ Window
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