It’s finally happening.
The Oscar nominees have been announced, and this year the Academy Awards are shaping up to be the Fyre Festival of award shows. But no matter how many things will definitely go wrong at the ceremony, it still has to come out with some winners.
After a few days of deliberating, we were able to come up with our initial predictions of who will take home those little gold statues on February 24th. We make our decisions based on a variety of factors including relevant awards, media buzz, past winners, political and exterior influences, online prediction trends, and good old-fashioned gut feels.
We’ve scoured the Internet and talked about this stuff way too much so that you don’t have to. It’s our only hope that we can help you win your Oscar pool like we’ve been helping our families do for years. We’ll update our predictions as the Oscars get closer and frontrunners start to solidify, but until then please enjoy our first impressions of who we think will win the 91st Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
Since winning the Golden Lion at the 2018 Venice Film Festival, Roma has been slowly gaining momentum. Winning the Critics’ Choice Award for best picture and picking up ten Oscar nominations (the most this year tied with The Favourite), Roma seems poised to become the first foreign film to win best picture. The film has a strong story, beautiful cinematography, and Alfonso Cuarón is an Oscar darling, with multiple Oscar wins and nominations already under his belt.
Roma’s main competition is Green Book, which won the PGA award but will likely sink because of the controversies surrounding the film. The main thing we’re worried about with Roma is the older Oscar voters’ general contempt for all things Netflix, but the fact that Roma is a foreign film will likely help those voters excuse the unconventional distribution.
Netflix is going all out on Roma, spending more on this Oscar campaign than on any previous film. If any film can become the first best picture winner that’s a Netflix movie and also in black and white and also makes people read, it’s this one.
OUR PICK: Roma
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga seemed to be the year’s favorite, but the ocean of support for A Star is Born has lately been feeling a little shahahalow. Glenn Close is an Oscar favorite and is essentially the only part of The Wife that voters will think about. Lady Gaga could still surprise on this one but Glenn Close already has the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. But this race will be (Glenn) close.
OUR PICK: Glenn Close, The Wife
BEST ACTOR
The Oscars love actors who disappear into their roles as famous historical figures (Darkest Hour, Theory of Everything, Dallas Buyers Club, Lincoln, The King’s Speech, Milk, Ray, Amadeus, Gandhi, Patton, honestly we’re tired of pulling examples). They also love Christian Bale, and a vote for him is essentially a middle finger to Cheney and the Bush administration. Bale won the Globe and Critics' Choice -- this one's in the bag. Maybe we'll get it wrong, but like Dick Cheney after he shot someone in the face, we won't apologize.
OUR PICK: Christian Bale, Vice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King’s performance in If Beale Street Could Talk is undeniable. She didn’t get nominated for the SAG award, which could hurt her chances, but she still won the Globe and Critics' Choice, which we think still puts momentum on her side. Barry Jenkins’ last film Moonlight led to a best supporting actor win, and it’s likely that it’ll mean the same for Regina King this year.
OUR PICK: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali is an incredible actor and has also been winning up a storm this year. He seems to be the only person not touched by Green Book controversy, and his impressive performance on the new season of True Detective will keep him fresh in voters’ minds. Ali won this award for Moonlight in 2017, and it’s hard to see anyone else taking it this year.
OUR PICK: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
BEST DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuarón wrote, directed, shot, and cut Roma, making him the true auteur of the year’s biggest film (excuse me while we go throw up into a film theory book). Roma is a masterpiece in all fields, and voters seem ready to give Cuarón his second directing Oscar for it.
OUR PICK: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Usually this award goes to whatever Disney/Pixar movie is out on the given year, but both Disney/Pixar films this year (Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet) are sequels, which never fare as well as original features. This year Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse stands out. The animation is stunning and inventive and the story is unique and entertaining. Spider-Man is the most buzzed animated film this year, and we see this one winning in every dimension of the multi-verse.
OUR PICK: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Schrader is a screenwriting heavyweight, having written films like Raging Bull and Taxi Driver. He’s never won an Oscar, and voters may reward his long writing career in February. First Reformed benefits from a timely, politically relevant script and it has the momentum from the Critics' Choice Awards. It could get upset by Green Book or Roma, but we expect Schrader to carry this one to his first Oscar win.
OUR PICK: Paul Schrader, First Reformed
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cinematography is one of the most memorable aspects of Roma. The long, sweeping shots are unforgettable, and voters will likely be impressed with the fact that Alfonso Cuarón shot the film while directing and basically running everything except the crafty truck. Even Cuarón’s usual cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki was said to be very impressed with Roma’s cinematography. Cuarón is going to need a cart to carry all his Oscars, because Roma’s got this one.
OUR PICK: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Mister Rogers documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor seemed to have this one locked, until it missed that relatively important step of being nominated. Now this race is between RBG and Free Solo. Between the story of one of the smartest people in history, and the story of one of the dumbest things anyone has ever done. RBG benefits from relevance of its subject matter, as Ruth Bader Ginsberg is a large presence in the news, and her biopic On the Basis of Sex is currently in theaters. But media buzz at the moment gives the edge to Free Solo. The pure insanity of its story and the danger that the filmmakers put themselves in to capture it will likely impress voters.
OUR PICK: Free Solo
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Look out! Disagreements ahead!
BEN: Since Roma will likely take away best picture, director, and cinematography, my gut says the voters will give the award to Cold War. The second most talked about black and white foreign language film this year. As the awards night gets closer, the momentum could shift back to Roma.
MATT: Ben’s argument brings up a good point about whether this unusual Oscar year will split votes for Roma between best picture and best foreign film. But I’m going with precedent on this one. Almost every foreign film that has been nominated for best picture has won its foreign film category, and I think Roma’s strength in other categories will coast it through this one too.
BEN: Cold War
MATT: Roma
BEST FILM EDITING
This particularly elusive category tends to go to war and action flicks, but there are no such films nominated this year. Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice could win, but Rhapsody is shrouded in controversy and Adam McKay’s distinct editing style failed to win him the Oscar for The Big Short in 2015. We’re giving it to BlacKkKlansman, which is essentially the nominated film that’s closest to an action flick. This could be the chance for the Academy to Do the Right Thing (sorry) and finally give Spike Lee an Oscar.
OUR PICK: BLACKKKLANSMAN
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEN: The flick to win best sound editing this year is A Quiet Place. Since best sound editing is the only category A Quiet Place is nominated for, and it won the Critics' Choice for best horror/sci-fi film, this flick could be a safe choice. As the award show gets closer, momentum could shift towards First Man or Black Panther.
MATT: This is a tough one. A Quiet Place deserves it and could definitely take it. My gut feel tells me though that voters won’t give a sound award to a movie with “quiet” in the title. Maybe I’m an idiot and I’m not giving the voters enough credit. For now, I’m going with First Man. The Academy loves action and sci-fi for this category, and First Man seems to be the closest film to the past winners. And those big whooshing sounds when Gosling goes to space are pretty sweet.
BEN: A QUIET PLACE
MATT: FIRST MAN
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEN: When it comes to sound mixing, traditionally the academy loves war or action movies. In 2018 it was Dunkirk, 2017 Hacksaw Ridge took home the gold, and in 2016 best sound mixing was awarded to Mad Max: Fury Road. This year Black Panther could win best sound mixing for Wakanda. As the awards ceremony gets closer, films like First Man or A Star Is Born could MIX things up (not sorry).
MATT: The Academy doesn’t really understand the sound mixing Oscar, and to be honest neither do I. Voters often give sound mixing and editing to the same film because they don’t know the difference. I’m guessing there’s a big difference. Don’t ask me to explain it.
BEN: Black Panther
MATT: First Man
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
There are some impressive nominees in this category, but only one of them involved inventing a brand new country. Black Panther is a real stand out in a category that, along with costume design, tends to reward the bigger, brighter, and more grandiose nominees. Voters will want to reward Black Panther here after not voting for it in the bigger categories, and it already has the Critics' Choice momentum. We’re giving this one to Wakanda.
OUR PICK: Black Panther
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Pretty much everything we said for production design applies here. This award often goes to period pieces, but damn if Black Panther’s intricate, eye-popping exploration of Afrofuturism doesn’t kick the collective asses of every other costume on this list.
OUR PICK: Black Panther
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
This is another tough one because we could see a lot of these movies winning. Musicals do well in this category but sequels don’t, so Mary Poppins loses the edge here. Isle of Dogs composer Alexandre Desplat is a recent Oscar winner, but we’re pretty sure Isle of Dogs came out three years ago. Media buzz has this going to the memorable and compelling score of If Beale Street Could Talk, but this could definitely change as the month goes on.
OUR PICK: If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Let’s be real. Do you even know what the other nominees are for this category? It doesn’t matter. It’s going to Gaga. It was always going to Gaga.
OUR PICK: “Shallow” Lady Gaga
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
The Academy loves giving this to the film that totally transforms its lead into a famous historical figure (Darkest Hour, Dallas Buyers Club, The Iron Lady). In this case, the hair and makeup departments turned Christian Bale into Satan himself, and that’s pretty impressive.
OUR PICK: Vice
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
We’re pretty sure the Academy is made up of a bunch of kindergarteners, because boy do they love space and sci-fi movies. Blade Runner, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Inception, and Avatar have all taken home this award. First Man has a clear edge here, and it’s designation as the “smartest” of the nominees will only elevate it further for these astronaut-loving voters.
OUR PICK: First Man
Look out for our updated picks as the Oscars get closer. We’ll also be doing a post for the ever elusive Oscar-nominated short films once we’re both able to see them. If you think we’re wrong on our predictions please draft an email to flickpixblog@gmail.com. And then go ahead and delete that email and stop questioning us, because we’re never wrong.
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