The Oscars are only two weeks away, and like the Ford and the Ferrari in the hit movie Ford v. Ferrari, the award season is revving up. And like the time we watched Ford v. Ferrari, we think we know who’s going to win. So we’re back to recap the award season so far and what it all means for our predictions! Like they probably say in Ford v. Ferrari, “Buckle up!”
FILM EDITING
Once 1917 was left out of this category we knew it was going to be hard to predict. We saw Ford v. Ferrari as the traditional favorite based on its fast-paced racing sequences. But the ACE (editing) awards saw Parasite take home the top prize, showing its strength in the category. Adding to this was Parasite’s win for ensemble cast at the SAG (acting) awards, which is especially important because actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy. Parasite now has the momentum and the overall popularity to make history here, so we’re switching our Film Editing prediction to them.
ACTING!
The SAG awards tend to be generally safe predictors for the acting Oscars, so we felt even better about our choices when each of our predictions won their respective SAG awards. Renée Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern, and Brad Pitt all seem poised to take home the gold on Oscar Sunday.
VROOM VS BOOM
The sound editing and sound mixing awards had some surprising wins, with Golden Reel (sound editors) giving their award for dialogue and ADR to 1917 and their award for sound effects and foley to Ford v. Ferrari. The Cinema Audio Society (sound mixers) gave their top prize to Ford v. Ferrari, with 1917 not nominated. But these awards are not consistent predictors for their corresponding Oscars. They like to give their top awards to films with more subtle soundscapes, while the Oscars tend to award the loudest movie. So even with the strong showing from Ford v. Ferrari, we’re still giving our Sound Mixing and Sound Editing awards to the movie that goes boom over the one that goes vroom.
1917, 1917, and 1917
The PGA (producing), DGA (directing) and ASC (cinematography) awards were nothing but good news for 1917, which took home the top prize in all three. This only further solidified our picks for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Cinematographer. This was all pretty well expected, since voters like to reward technical achievements in directing, and Roger Deakins’ cinematography was unparalleled this year.
The PGA is the most consistent predictor for Best Picture. It has predicted 8 out of the last 10 winners, and after Green Book’s unfortunate win last year, we learned to never bet against the PGA again.
DOCU-MOMENTUM
Apollo 11 was the expected favorite for Best Feature Documentary, but after not being nominated the predictions moved to American Factory to take the gold. The DGAs saw the first win for American Factory in an awards show where Apollo 11 wasn’t nominated, suggesting it has the momentum it needs to win.
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