Everyone loves a sequel. The Godfather Part 2. Terminator 2. Speed 2: Cruise Control. We all love all of these movies. So it only fits that we at Flick Pix make our own sequel by releasing our initial predictions to this year’s Oscars.
Last year was, to put it lightly, insane. Coming off the controversial wins for Green Book, we hoped that the Academy would reflect, learn from their mistakes, and nominate more women and people of color. That…did not happen.
Among some of the snubs this year were Lulu Wang for her directing of The Farewell, and Lupita Nyong’o for her masterful dual performance in Us. We also wanted to see more love for Dolemite is My Name and Uncut Gems.
But we took some time to talk it over and do our initial research, and we have our first round of predictions. We should make clear that this list shows the films we think will win, not the ones we think should win. We’ll be updating our prediction list as the awards get closer, as well as including our shorts predictions after they’re released in theaters. Be sure to follow our Facebook and Twitter for updates. Without further adieu, here are our first impression predictions for the 2020 Oscars. As Sandra Bullock probably says in Speed 2: Cruise Control, “We’re back, baby!”
BEST PICTURE: 1917
It’s a showdown between the Academy’s two favorite topics: war and themselves! The Academy loves war movies (All Quiet on the Western Front, The Hurt Locker) and movies about Hollywood (The Artist, Birdman), so it makes sense that 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood have become the clear best picture frontrunners.
While Once Upon a Time in Hollywood surprised at the Critics’ Choice Awards, we’re betting on 1917 to take home the big prize on Oscar night. Through Sam Mendes’ deft, calculated directing, and Roger Deakins’ masterful cinematography, 1917 is a stunning filmmaking achievement that should impress a majority of Academy voters. But mostly we just don’t want to watch Tarantino give another cringe-worthy acceptance speech.
BEST DIRECTOR: Sam Mendes, 1917
The Academy has a long history of awarding directors who pull off impressive technical achievements (The Revenant, Gravity, Life of Pi). The intense coordination necessary to pull off the epic long takes of 1917 gives Sam Mendes a strong lead. Bong Joon-ho is the only other real contender in this race for his incredible directing of Parasite. But precedent is firmly on the side of 1917 here, so look for Mendes to pick up his second directing Oscar this year.
BEST ACTRESS: Renée Zellweger, Judy
We don’t know a single person who has seen Judy. We’re not sure anyone really has. But that hasn’t stopped Zellweger from sweeping the awards circuit and picking up every relevant award so far. The Academy loves awarding actors who play historic characters. And a historic Hollywood figure? Forget about it. Zellweger also has a big Hollywood comeback narrative blowing wind in her sails. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone else coming away with this one.
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
The Academy can’t get enough of actors who disappear into their roles. It’s their “Don’t Stop Believing.” Expect the Oscars to play the hits again this year with Joaquin Phoenix, whose haunting performance as Arthur Fleck stands out beyond any other this year. The Academy doesn’t often like to award actors who play villains, but it’s not without precedent (Denzel Washington in Training Day, Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs). And with Phoenix racking up the Globes and Critics’ Choice awards, we bet the wins will go on and on and on and on.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Marriage Story is a real actor’s film. All of that yelling and divorce is everything actors dream of. The only thing that could make it better is the addition of Laura Dern, whose performance as a cutthroat divorce lawyer has earned her multiple awards so far. In her divorce case, in her performance, and in life, Laura Dern always wins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has drawn a lot of different opinions, but the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that they fucking love Brad Pitt. We don’t know if it’s the effortless performance or that shirtless rooftop scene, but we think this Brad Pitt guy might be going places.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Parasite
Let’s be real. There is literally no chance Parasite isn’t walking away with this one. The film is a genre-mashing masterpiece and an acting powerhouse. It’s basically a perfect film. Whenever a foreign film gets nominated for best picture, it always takes home best foreign film (Roma, Amour), and never wins best picture (it sucks, we know). Bong Joon-ho should feel pretty safe to get started on his acceptance speech.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Toy Story 4
There were some really impressive animated films this year, from the artsy French film I Lost My Body to Laika Studios’ Missing Link, which broke a record for most shots used in a single scene of stop motion animation. But there’s one rule in this category that we always have to come back to:
Never. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Bet. Against. Pixar.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: American Factory
Initial frontrunner Apollo 11 was snubbed in this category, leaving it to two Netflix contenders: American Factory and The Edge of Democracy. For this category it’s safe to treat the voters like toddlers and bet on the happiest, most upbeat, most immediately relatable doc, which this year is American Factory. It’s enjoyable, it’s set in the midwest, and it was produced by the Obamas. Done.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has a bit of an unfair advantage here, given that it is basically two separate feature films and a Western TV episode all in one. But hey, that’s Hollywood. Tarantino has won this award twice already with Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained, and after his Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice wins we expect him to get his third here. The only speed bump is the film not getting nominated for the WGA screenplay award, which often helps predict the Oscar winner. So look out for Parasite or Knives Out to pick up momentum from a potential WGA win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
We wouldn’t usually bet on a remake, but Greta Gerwig took substantial liberties with the source material to provide a creative new take on the Louisa May Alcott novel. The Irishman or Jojo Rabbit could upset, but the WGA loves to award stories about writers so we expect that momentum to carry Gerwig all the way to the finish line.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roger Deakins, 1917
Roger Deakins is a god among cinematographers. There’s a shot in 1917 that literally made us wonder if the man had walked on water to pull off. Deakins uses every inch of the camera’s frame to explore the people and landscape of war, while expertly making the film appear as if it’s shot in nearly one long take. The Academy loves to reward films with long takes (Birdman, Gravity, The Revenant), and already awarded Deakins in 2017 for Blade Runner 2049. Mark this on your ballots now, because there’s no way the Academy is giving this to anyone but our camera crush Deakins.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
The Academy goes apeshit for period piece costumes. The older and more elaborate, the better. Little Women has by far the oldest and most elaborate costumes. There may be some competition from the Hollywood nostalgia of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood but our guts say it’s Little Women all the way.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
If there’s anything the Academy likes more than seeing Hollywood on screen, it’s seeing old Hollywood on screen. While the masterful production design of 1917 might give it a run for its money, Once Upon a Time’s detailed recreation of 1969 Hollywood is likely to hit voters right in the nostalgia.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, Vivian Baker, Bombshell
The Academy likes to reward makeup and hair that transforms an actor into a historical or living figure, so we’re betting on Bombshell for the impressive prosthetics used to turn Charlize Theron into Fox News host Megyn Kelly. Look out for Joker or Judy to pick up momentum for the steal.
BEST FILM EDITING: Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland, Ford V. Ferrari
This category is especially hard this year due to the fact that the frontrunner 1917 wasn’t nominated. The Academy likes fast-paced action here, and Ford V. Ferrari is the only contender that fits the bill. Parasite could ride its overall support to upset here, but for now, we think voters will go for the film about the cars that go vroom.
BEST SOUND EDITING: Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate, 1917
War movies almost always win sound editing and sound mixing. And due to the fact that the Academy often doesn’t know the difference between the two (we definitely do, but don’t ask us to explain it) it’s safe to predict the same film for both awards.
BEST SOUND MIXING: Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson, 1917
See above.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
There are some incredible contenders this year, but only one features as much weird dancing as Joker. While 1917 could surprise, Joker’s score dominates its film more than any other nominee. In February we expect to see the composer dancing on that Bronx staircase with their brand new Oscar.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from Rocketman
You really think the Academy is going to miss a chance to give Elton John an Oscar for writing a new song for a musical about himself? What are we even doing here? Next.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 1917
We expect 1917 to carry the Oscar narrative as the biggest technical achievement of the year, which makes it a safe prediction for a lot of these technical awards. The Academy usually likes to award this to the more prestigious films in the category rather than superhero or franchise films. The Irishman could surprise due to its groundbreaking de-aging technology that was specifically made for this film to decrease the tech’s hinderances on the actors’ performances. But for now we’re sticking with our big loud prestigious war film 1917.
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