The lead up to the Oscars this year has been nothing short of a disaster. The Oscars have no host and almost didn’t screen four of its awards. The Academy has gone back on so many of its decisions these past few weeks that winners should probably run off the stage before someone changes their mind.
But as Jackson Maine says in A Star Is Born, “Maybe it’s mhmrrm hmm mhhrrrmmm” And we really took that to heart. So despite a rollout as confusing as Bradley Cooper’s character voice, we’ve been toiling away to stay updated on the frontrunners for each Oscar category.
So with one week to go, please enjoy our updates on the 2019 Oscar race:
SHORT FILMS
Oh, the notoriously unpredictable Oscar-nominated short films. Like that one friend who really likes Avatar, these categories have been known to spoil their share of Oscar parties. The short films this year ranged all the way from sad to really sad, and despite our best judgments we sat through all of them. We do this for you. You’re welcome.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The live action short films this year were like a root canal for the soul. If you think that’s an exaggeration, then maybe you should go watch them and stop making us do it. The shorts went to some dark places, and all except for one showed some version of children being hurt or hurting others. Only one film, Marguerite, avoided this trend, and while there may be better films in this bunch, the emotional break that Marguerite provided voters will likely propel it to an Oscar.
OUR PICK: MARGUERITE
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
There are three rules in gambling: always quit when you’re ahead, always split Aces, and never bet against Pixar. The animation giant has won almost every year that it has been nominated, and with the creative and heartwarming short film Bao, Pixar seems to have the best hand, which we want to say is a full house? We don’t know gambling.
OUR PICK: BAO
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Several of the short documentaries offered a glimmer of hope in a difficult world, and none better encapsulates that than Period. End of Sentence. The short explores a group of women taking control of their lives and the conversation around women’s health in a small Indian town. The inspiring story is bolstered by its aggressive Oscar campaign, and at this point it’s hard to see a stronger contender.
OUR PICK: PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.
BEST ACTOR
We originally had Christian Bale picked for best actor, but the momentum seems to be favoring Rami Malek for his role in Bohemian Rhapsody. Rami recently won the BAFTA and SAG awards, and with actors making up the largest chunk of the Academy’s voting bloc, that SAG award is a pretty good indicator of future winners.
OUR PICK: RAMI MALEK, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
We were really hoping that the WGA awards would give us a better indication about the frontrunners for the screenplay categories. But like Viggo Mortensen every time he gives an interview, the WGAs really let us down. The WGA went to Bo Burnham’s Eighth Grade, which despite being totally deserved, is not nominated for an Oscar. So now this category seems to be going to either Green Book, which has the PGA win, or The Favourite, which swept the BAFTAs and has been garnering a lot more attention in recent weeks. The Favourite wasn’t WGA eligible, so voters may want to reward the writing on Sunday.
OUR PICK: THE FAVOURITE
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Spike Lee has often been at odds with the Academy, and in 1989 he was denied an Oscar for his screenplay Do The Right Thing. This year things feel different as BlacKkKlansman has been picking up steam. The film won the BAFTA for best adapted screenplay, and it looks like voters are rallying around this category to finally recognize Spike Lee for his long and prolific filmmaking career.
OUR PICK: SPIKE LEE, BLACKKKLANSMAN
VISUAL EFFECTS
We originally had First Man winning this year’s visual effects award based on the Academy’s general reluctance to award superhero flicks. But after winning the Visual Effects Society award, it looks like Avengers is proving that it just needed to kill off half of its characters (spoiler alert) to get the Academy’s attention. First Man is still at a close second, having won the best supporting effects award and remaining a more typical Oscar contender, but current trends suggest that voters will finally award the frequently-nominated Avengers movies and give a posthumous award to young Spider-Man (spoiler again) before his next movie comes out.
OUR PICK: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
SOUND MIXING
BEN: The CAS (Cinema Audio Society) recently awarded Bohemian Rhapsody best sound mixing for a feature film. The Live Aid concert scene was shot, edited, and mixed into one of the most epic concert sequences of all time. This could have given Bohemian Rhapsody the edge it needed to win best sound mixing at the CAS awards. If things go right for Bohemian Rhapsody, by the end of the night, the Academy could be singing, AYYYYYYY-OH.
OUR PICK: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Look out! Disagreements ahead!
FILM EDITING
BEN: Although the ACE award was given to Bohemian Rhapsody for best editing, Vice might have the last word in the best editing category at the Oscars. Since there is no clear frontrunner this year for best editing, and Bohemian Rhapsody is likely to win Best Actor, the Academy might show some love to Vice for best editing. Since 2009, the BAFTA awards predicted the last six out of nine Oscar winners for best editing. The ACE awards have only predicted the last five out of the last nine Oscar winners. Since Bohemian Rhapsody swept momentum out from under Christian Bale for best actor, Vice could do the same for best editing.
MATT: This category always throws me. It was the only one I got wrong in 2013 and I have never forgiven the Academy or myself for it. It’s consistently difficult to predict, and this year seems to be harder than ever. Vice has some of the most noticeable editing, but BlacKkKlansman remains the closest thing to an action flick in this category. And Bohemian Rhapsody won the ACE seemingly just to prove that this industry still hasn’t learned anything about awarding problematic movies. I’m giving it to Bohemian Rhapsody right now because of the Live Aid sequence, but I’m not happy about it.
BEN: VICE
MATT: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
We’re a week away, and things are very much still shaking out. Check in with us on Oscar Sunday (February 24) for our finalized predictions. We may not enjoy this year’s Oscars, but damnit we'll do pretty well in our Oscar pools.
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