The Oscars aired on Sunday and there was no shortage of big moments and surprises. Spike Lee won his first Oscar for Blackkklansman, Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga probably made Cooper’s wife Irina Shayk very uncomfortable, and the award show did surprisingly well without a host. It looked like the Academy had finally righted the ship after a long and tumultuous Oscar season, until it hit an enormous Green-Book-shaped iceberg right at the end and decided to give that iceberg two Oscars.
We knew this year would be a tough year to predict, but it turned out to be even harder to predict than we predicted. Our final tally was 18/24, which was definitely not the best score we’ve ever gotten. But for perspective and the sake of our own egos we have to mention that we tied the prediction scores on Variety and Deadline, and beat the professional Oscar predictors at The Hollywood Reporter (17/24), The New York Times (17/24) and IndieWire (14/24). Take that, respected newspapers and trade magazines!
We break down what happened (a lot) and what shouldn’t have happened (Green Book) below.
THE SMALL SURPRISES
PRODUCTION DESIGN
We expected that costume and production design were going to either Black Panther or The Favourite. Based on the swell of support and predictions for The Favourite we split the vote, giving costume to Black Panther and production design to The Favourite. We were happy to see Wakanda take the sweep though, even if it meant our first incorrect prediction of the night.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
The live action shorts are always some of the hardest to predict. Our guts told us that the bombardment of tragedy that this year’s shorts put its viewers through would make Marguerite stand out. The winner, Skin, had a lot going for it, particularly its full circle narrative and its star power (by which we mean it had the only recognizable actors to an American audience). But the film’s wild tattoo sequence (we’d rather not describe it) felt like a big pulpy tonal shift that really took us out of the story, and we didn’t expect voters to connect with it. We weren’t thrilled with this win, but now we know that you can’t bet against a short film with star power and a heavy-handed moral message.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
This was another category where Black Panther outperformed expectations. Prediction trends were showing the most love for If Beale Street Could Talk, with a possible upset from Blackkklansman. But the score of Black Panther was an impressive accomplishment, and we were happy to see it get recognized.
THE DOOZIES
BEST ACTRESS
If you saw this coming, you’re a demon. You’re some kind of witch or warlock with dark magic powers, because that’s the only explanation that could possibly make sense. No one was expecting Olivia Colman to win this category. This was one of the universally accepted locks of the Oscars, like “Shallow” winning Best Original Song and Bradley Cooper singing it badly. Colman came out with the upset though, and gave an acceptance speech so charming that she left as the Oscars’ true Favourite.
BEST PICTURE/BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Sigh* Okay, here we go.
Green Book has a lot of issues. Everything in and around the movie is problematic at best. The film drew outrage from Dr. Donald Shirley’s family for historical inaccuracies about his portrayal. Shirley had even refused to have a movie made about his life when he was still alive. Now-Oscar-winning writer Nick Vallelonga had a controversy of supporting an anti-Muslim statement made by Donald Trump, and director Peter Farrelly has a history of exposing himself on set.
The film continues the problematic trend of the “white savior” film, with Viggo Mortensen’s character somehow being the lead character and literal driver of a story about a prolific black musician in the segregated South. We hoped that the younger and more diverse members of the Academy would help reverse this trend, but we clearly still have a ways to go. It's likely that the Academy's tiered voting structure also helped get Green Book its wins, as well as the general fear of Netflix held by older voters. Well Academy, congrats. You sure told off Netflix. I'm sure you'll never hear from them again.
As if just trying to make us mad, Peter Farrelly included a shout out in his acceptance speech to Shinola watches, which he said are “saving Detroit.” Most people from the Detroit area can tell you that’s an inaccurate and tone deaf sentiment. Shinola has reaped the benefits of marketing itself with the Detroit comeback narrative without actually contributing much beyond a single assembly plant. The people of Detroit are saving Detroit, not a singular corporation.
Okay, rant over. While the Oscars were overshadowed by some real bummers, and we were sad to not see Roma take away the top honor, we’re thrilled for the rest of the non-Green-Book winners and the historical achievements made this year. Not only did Spike Lee finally break his career-long Oscar drought, but Alfonso Cuarón also broke several records. Roma was the first Mexican film to win best foreign film, and Cuarón was the first person to win Best Director and Best Cinematography for the same film. His win for Best Director is the fifth win in six years for a Mexican director, which seems like a statistic that would cause the president to wake up in a cold sweat.
Also did you see Cuarón up there on stage with Guillermo del Toro? Squad goals for sure. #squadgoalsforsure
We can't wait to be back predicting the Oscars again next year. Thanks for reading, and feel free to reach out to us if you have any questions. We do parties (we don’t)!
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